How to Compare Football Betting Odds Correctly
How to Compare Football Betting Odds Correctly
Two sources may give you different figures for the same fixture, but the higher number doesn’t necessarily mean the better price. If one site provides the Home selection at 1.85, then another site quotes 1.90. A third site may give you 0.90 or even -1.11.
Those prices might be expressed in a different odds format, apply to different betting lines or were recorded at different time. Even if the fixture is the same, the change in the handicap or goal line might influence the settlement conditions.
Price comparison becomes possible only if the fixture, market, betting line, match period, odds format and update time are the same.
Confirm the fixture and comparison time
To start with, you should find out whether the prices come from the same fixture.
In one season, the clubs may meet each other several times in different leagues, cups and friendlies. The reserve and youth squads of the same clubs may also have identical names, so the comparison of club names isn’t enough.
You should verify the following:
- Competition
- Date of the match
- Kick-off time
- Home and away teams
- Venue (neutral field or not)
- Pre-match or live nature of the market
The pre-match price cannot be compared to the live price. Once the match started, the odds will start changing due to match events such as goals, injuries, sending off players and so on.
The time zone differences might create some confusion as well. Two sources may quote different kick-off times for the same fixture. Verifying the competition and match date will normally sort this problem out.
Moreover, the prices should be recorded within the same time frame. The morning price cannot be compared to the pre-match price due to the emergence of new information about the teams.
Compare the same market and betting line
Next step is the verification of the market.
There are lots of different markets in the football match:
- Asian handicap
- Over/under
- 1X2
- Both teams to score
- Team total goals
- First half
- Corners
- Cards
Similar-looking markets may have different settlement conditions.
The regular Full Time Home Win bet in the 1X2 market is the same as Home -0.5 in the Asian Handicap market. Both bets will win in case of home win and lose in case of a draw or away win. Yet you should verify the match period and settlement conditions before making the price comparison.
There are totally different markets. Both Over 2.5 goals and Both teams to score bets may be favorable in an attacking game, yet the settlement conditions will differ. 3-0 result will win Over 2.5 and lose Both teams to score Yes bet.
Furthermore, the betting line should be the same.
Here are some examples:
- Home -0.5 at 1.82
- Home -0.75 at 2.02
The second price is higher, yet it is attached to the more difficult handicap. One-goal home win will fully win the first bet, while the same result will only partially win the second one.
This approach is applicable to goal totals as well:
- Over 2.5 at 1.85
- Over 2.75 at 2.00
Three goals will fully win the first bet, yet only partially win the second one. So the higher price corresponds to the less favorable settlement conditions.
Therefore, price comparison should include the same fixture, market, selection, handicap or total, and match period.
Use the properly structured odds table
Properly structured odds table will allow you to separate the betting line from the price and check if two selections are truly comparable.
A structured football odds comparison on Keonhacai5 makes it easier to review Asian handicap, over/under and 1X2 prices across upcoming fixtures.
When reading an odds table, you should check each of the elements separately:
- Team or outcome
- Handicap or goal line
- Price attached to the line
- Opening price
- Current price
- Last update time
So, “Home -0.5 at 1.90” is the combination of two different elements. The -0.5 is the betting line, while 1.90 is the price.
Changing the handicap from -0.5 to -0.75 means changing the selection. Changing the handicap from -0.5 to -0.5 and the price from 1.90 to 1.80 means changing only the price.
This difference should always be verified before concluding that one source provides the better price.
Convert prices into the same odds format
Football bets may be displayed in Decimal, Hong Kong, Malay, Indonesian, American or Fractional odds format.
Yet the same price might look in the following way:
- Decimal 1.90
- Hong Kong 0.90
- American approximately -111
- Indonesian approximately -1.11
These prices are more or less the same. The comparison of 1.90 and 0.90 without verifying the format will lead to the wrong conclusions.
Before the comparison of two sources, you should convert both prices to the same format. Decimal is often the most convenient one, as it shows the total return including the initial amount.
Changing the Decimal 1.90 to Hong Kong 0.90 hasn’t changed the price. Only the display format was changed.
There might be some small differences due to the rounding in different odds formats. Therefore, you should use as many decimals before the rounding as possible.
Separate the opening, current and active prices
The opening price is the early estimation of the match. The current price reflects the later acquired information.
Here are some examples:
- Opening: Home -0.5 at 1.95
- Current: Home -0.5 at 1.80
The handicap remained the same, while the potential return on the Home selection decreased.
Now take a look at:
- Opening: Home -0.5 at 1.95
- Current: Home -0.75 at 1.95
The price remained the same, while the betting conditions became more difficult. This change is usually more important, as the selection itself was changed.
The same is true for the totals. Over 2.5 shortening from 1.95 to 1.80 means the change of the price. Shifting from Over 2.5 to Over 2.75 means changing the goal line and, consequently, the settlement conditions.
It is also important to verify that the quoted price is still active. Some tables update more slowly than others, especially after release of confirmed team line-ups or when the market moves quickly near the kick-off.
Refresh the page and verify the last update time before recording an unusually high price. Old price is not a substitute for the current price.
Compare both sides of the market
The comparison of one selection only might mislead you about the general adjustment of the market.
In the Asian Handicap market, the prices on Home and Away selections are related. For Over/Under, you should also consider the Over and Under prices. 1X2 consists of the prices on Home, Draw and Away outcomes.
Suppose the Home -0.5 price dropped from 1.95 to 1.80 and the Away +0.5 price increased. In this case, the direction of the adjustment becomes clear once you review both sides of the market.
For totals, an Over price becoming shorter and the Under price longer may indicate stronger expectations of the goals. Further move of the main total from 2.5 to 2.75 means more important adjustment than just small price change.
Verification of the complete market will help you to detect the outdated prices or display errors.
Higher return does not always mean better value
If the fixture, market, line, match period and all other conditions are the same, then the higher price means the higher potential return.
For example:
- Home -0.5 at 1.85
- Home -0.5 at 1.90
If both prices are the current ones and use the same odds format, then 1.90 gives the higher potential return.
Yet the higher price doesn’t necessarily mean the better value. It also depends on the probability of success of this particular selection.
The price can be higher because of the lower probability of the selected outcome. Price comparison shouldn’t be confused with the match prediction.
The first thing is to verify that the price comparison is correct. The assessment of the value of a selection requires the separate analysis of team strength, form, injuries, tactics and match situation.
Practical price comparison checklist
Readers unfamiliar with the table layout can first review this guide on how to read a football odds table.
Before concluding which price is better, you should verify:
Is it the same fixture and competition?
- Are both prices pre-match or both are live?
- Is the market the same?
- Is the selection the same?
- Is the handicap or goal line the same?
- Is the match period the same?
- Are both sources using the same odds format?
- Are the prices verified at the same time?
- Are both prices active and recently updated?
- Have both sides of the market been verified?
- If any of these conditions is different, you shouldn’t compare the prices directly.
The most common mistakes are the comparison of -0.5 and -0.75 handicaps, mistaking Decimal with Hong Kong odds and using the outdated price against the recently updated one. Such mistakes may make one source look better despite the different conditions.
Conclusion
Correct comparison of football betting odds means much more than just picking the highest number. The fixture, market, betting line, match period, odds format and update time should be the same.
Once these conditions are verified, the higher price will give you the higher potential return. Football odds is still the estimate and not the certainty, so any betting should be made within a fixed entertainment budget.
